FOXWELL///META DECISION COACH
MCP: CONNECTED A CLAUDE SKILL
A DIAGNOSTIC SKILL FOR META ADS PANIC

DON'T TOUCH ANYTHING.

Your Meta ads just fell off a cliff. Killing the winner feels right — and it's usually wrong. This skill turns account panic into a five-phase diagnosis, backed in real time by 500+ professional media buyers seeing what you're seeing.

5 PHASES·6 PLAYBOOKS·3 MCP TOOLS·1 ORDERED PLAN
01 / THE MOMENT

Every media buyer
knows this moment.

A proven winner. Five weeks of 2.5x. Then one morning the dashboard is red and the numbers don't make sense — CPMs went down and performance still collapsed.

The urge is to flip twenty switches: kill it, dupe it, raise the budget, change the bid, rebuild the campaign. The skill's job is to slow that down to exactly one change at a time — so you can actually tell what worked.

TRIGGER PHRASES IT LIVES FOR: “MY ADS DIED” · “META IS ACTING WEIRD” · “WHAT'S WRONG WITH MY ACCOUNT”

INCOMING — MEDIA BUYER, 9:14 AM

ROAS 2.5 → 0.4
CPM −50% OVERNIGHT?!
$400/DAY · CBO · LOWEST COST
EDITS MADE: 0
02 / THE METHOD

Five phases.
Ten minutes. Zero guesses.

A full diagnostic feels like a conversation with a sharp colleague — not an intake form. Drag through the flow (KEEP SCROLLING →)

01

INTAKE

Separate what you know from what you suspect. Everything you already said is extracted first — then one batch of questions, five or fewer, never re-asking. The timeline alone splits creative fatigue from algorithmic breaks: fatigue is gradual; cliffs are not.

WHEN DID IT BREAK? CLIFF OR DECAY? WHAT CHANGED IN THE LAST 7 DAYS? ASC / CBO / ABO? SPEND LEVEL? VERTICAL · PRICE POINT?
02

CLASSIFY

The symptom is matched to one of six diagnostic playbooks. Checks run cheapest-first and most-common-first — you check tracking before you rebuild a single campaign. Every check is answerable in Ads Manager in under two minutes.

1 · SUDDEN DROP 2 · COST CONTROLS 3 · STRUCTURE 4 · PAUSE/DUPE/ITERATE/WAIT 5 · FATIGUE 6 · ACCOUNT-WIDE STALLS
03

COMMUNITY

The part generic advice can't do. Meta's behavior shifts month to month, and the Foxwell Founders community notices within days. A platform-wide cost-cap breakage looks identical to an account problem from inside one account — this phase is how you tell them apart.

FOXWELL MCP
FRESH RECENT AGING STALE

EVIDENCE IS WEIGHTED BY AGE — PLATFORM QUESTIONS DEMAND FRESH THREADS.

04

THE LEDGER

Before anything is recommended, facts are separated from hypotheses. This is the discipline step — it kills the classic failure mode of treating a guess like a diagnosis and rebuilding the account over it. Every likely cause gets a confirmation step you can actually perform.

CONFIRMEDROAS fell July 4 weekend
LIKELYDemand dip — confirm: post-weekend recovery
RULED OUTCreative fatigue — drop was overnight
05

THE PLAN

Ordered cheapest-and-most-reversible first. One structural change at a time — change bids, budget and creative together and you learn nothing. Every action gets a monitoring window and a tripwire, scaled to spend level. And when the community says it's platform weather, the plan is: protect spend and wait it out.

1 · CHECK METRICCOSTS NOTHING
2 · EXCLUDE PLACEMENT48–72H
3 · DUPLICATE — RESETS LEARNINGLAST RESORT
03 / THE FOXWELL MCP

It doesn't guess.
It asks the room.

Inside one ad account, a platform-wide meltdown and a self-inflicted wound look exactly the same. The skill queries the Foxwell Founders community live — 500+ professional media buyers whose field reports become the evidence layer of every diagnosis.

LIVE — FOXWELL MCP
512 BUYERS ONLINE
› awaiting query…
FRESHRECENTAGINGSTALE
search_foxwell_knowledge(query, source_filter)

Two to four distinct queries per case: one phrased like the symptom (“cost cap not spending”), one for the suspected mechanism (“CPM spike placement shift”), one scoped to the time window. source_filter="slack" catches what's happening right now; unfiltered pulls playbook and blog depth.

foxwell_trending_topics(days=14)

Called whenever the change is sudden or unexplained. If “cost controls failing” is this week's top theme, the entire diagnosis reframes — from “what did I break?” to “how do I operate through platform instability?”

find_foxwell_expert(topic)

For high-stakes or ambiguous cases, the skill routes you to a named specialist in the community — because sometimes the right next action is a better question, asked of the right person.

EVIDENCE IS WEIGHTED BY AGE
FRESHplatform behavior: gold
RECENTstill counts
AGINGcontext only
STALE“this has happened before”

For delivery, cost controls and CPM questions, only FRESH and RECENT threads count. For evergreen craft — fatigue signals, testing cadence — the archive is gold. Every citation carries author, source, age and link.

04 / WATCH IT WORK

One panicked message.
One ordered plan.

A real diagnostic, condensed — the exact case from the skill's eval suite. No account access. Just what the buyer said, plus community evidence.

foxwell-decision-coach — live diagnostic
05 / THE PLAYBOOKS

Six scenarios.
Cheapest check first.

Each playbook is an ordered decision framework — not a script. Click one open.

  1. Tracking & site integrity — do backend sales match the drop, or only Meta's reported numbers? 2 MIN — RULES OUT FALSE ALARMS
  2. Calendar & demand — holiday weekend, Prime Day, sale ended? If a demand event overlaps, the first move is usually wait with a tripwire. 1 MIN
  3. Delivery diagnostics — CPM swing (a −50% drop means junk inventory), placement shift, outbound→LPV ratio (healthy ≈ 90%+, <70% = junk), frequency. 5 MIN
  4. What changed — edit history for the prior 7 days, site changes, ad comment sentiment. 5 MIN
  5. Community weather — same symptom, same week, many members? Weight platform-side heavily and de-escalate surgery.

MONITORING: 48–72H PER INTERVENTION · LONGER UNDER $200/DAY

  1. Community weather first — cost-cap breakage surges platform-wide. If it's widespread: minimal changes, wait it out.
  2. Cap vs reality — compare the cap to blended CPA over 14–30 days, and to AOV on cold audiences.
  3. History on the ads — new creatives can't spend under caps; warm them up or launch with an inflated cap, then walk it down.
  4. Cannibalization — a lowest-cost campaign running alongside will starve the capped ones.
  5. Escalation ladder — raise cap 5–10% every 48–72h → uncapped canary on a duplicate to confirm the ads can spend at all.

DISCIPLINE: WORKING CAPS ARE FRAGILE — A $1 DECREASE HAS CHOKED DELIVERY ENTIRELY

  1. Job to be done — testing → ABO; scaling winners → CBO/ASC; strict CPA constraints → cost caps in manual campaigns.
  2. Signal volume — ASC and broad CBO need ~50+ conversions/week as a floor.
  3. Creative depth — ASC is a creative-allocation machine; feeding it 2 ads wastes it. 10+ fresh assets earns its keep.
  4. Control tolerance — ASC hides levers. Strict audience separation → manual structure.
  5. What's working — never dismantle a working structure; test the new one in parallel with 10–20% of budget.

JUDGE A STRUCTURE TEST ON 7+ DAYS / FULL LEARNING EXIT — NOT DAY 2

  1. WAIT — demand event overlapping, drop <72h on a proven winner, or a platform-wide event in progress. Set a tripwire, never wait unbounded.
  2. PAUSE — actively bleeding economics, or traffic quality collapsed and placement exclusions didn't fix it. A short deliberate pause is also a soft-reset tactic.
  3. DUPLICATE — sudden cliff with clean tracking/calendar checks: the classic algo reset. Costs ~50 conversions of learning volatility.
  4. ITERATE — gradual decay with a specific soft-metric weakness: hook drop-off → new hook; CTR fine, CVR sagging → page/offer. If the angle is dead, iteration is polishing a corpse.

NEVER DUPE AND CHANGE THREE OTHER THINGS AT ONCE

  1. The fingerprints, in order — CPM climbing → CTR declining 2+ consecutive weeks → frequency past ~3–4x → first-time impression ratio falling → finally CPA/ROAS breaks.
  2. Confirm with soft metrics — video drop-off point, hook rate trend, comment sentiment. Week-over-week lines, not 7-day aggregates.
  3. Calibrate to vertical — broad e-com winners can run 6–8+ weeks; niche local audiences can burn out in 2–3.
  4. The deeper fix is systemic — fatigued ads every month = a reactive creative pipeline. Standing cadence: new concepts every 2–4 weeks, explicit retirement rules.

ONE FATIGUED AD IS A CREATIVE PROBLEM · MONTHLY FATIGUE IS A SYSTEMS PROBLEM

  1. Account health — billing failures, spend limits, restrictions, ads stuck in review (24h+ queues during platform chaos).
  2. Cost controls as choke point — an account of capped campaigns stalls in unison when the auction moves. Tell: does an uncapped test campaign spend?
  3. Internal cannibalization — one campaign dominating delivery; others can take days to resume after it's removed.
  4. Community weather — $0-spend freezes get reported in waves. Document, ticket, wait — rebuilding mid-wave adds damage.
  5. Learning-phase math — many simultaneous learning phases fragment signal. Consolidate.

CANARY: UNBLOCK ONE HIGH-CONFIDENCE CAMPAIGN — IF IT SPENDS, IT'S CONTROLS; IF NOT, IT'S ACCOUNT/PLATFORM-LEVEL

06 / THE ARTIFACT

Every diagnosis
leaves a paper trail.

After the plan lands in chat, the skill saves a markdown brief to the workspace. Share it with a teammate or client — then come back after the monitoring window and continue from recorded state instead of memory. Return with results and the same brief gets updated, not restarted.

  • Account context, symptom timeline
  • Community evidence — cited, with ages and links
  • The facts-vs-hypotheses ledger
  • Numbered plan with windows and decision rules
  • Re-check date, and what “fixed” looks like
meta-diagnostic-2026-07-04-sudden-cliff-winner.md

        
0MEDIA BUYERS
IN THE ROOM
0DIAGNOSTIC
PLAYBOOKS
0PHASES PER
DIAGNOSIS
0MCP TOOLS,
CALLED LIVE
0PANIC →
ORDERED PLAN